UNICOM Keynote Speech--Abstract and Bibliography

utzoo!decvax!harpo!floyd!cmcl2!philabs!sdcsvax!sdchema!jmcg utzoo!decvax!harpo!floyd!cmcl2!philabs!sdcsvax!sdchema!jmcg
Thu Jan 13 20:34:41 AEST 1983


                        Software Army on the March -
                       Project Strategies and Tactics

                                John R Mashey
                              Bell Laboratories
                             Whippany, NJ  07981

This talk describes the work of an army building roads ("software  projects")
through a part of the countryside that:

*    seldom has current maps.

*    is plagued by earthquakes ("major environment  changes"),  flash  floods
     ("temporary problems"), and fog ("inability to predict the future").

*    contains villages of natives ("users") who may greet  roadbuilders  with
     anything  from  great interest to outright hostility, but whose coopera-
     tion is essential.

*    may be overrun by enemy forces ("competitors") trying to build their own
     roads to the same locations.

An effective campaign has two aspects:

*    Doing the right thing, i.e., fighting the right war in the right  place,
     and choosing good routes to reach the goals.

*    Doing it right, i.e., building maintainable roads  with  adequate  capa-
     city,  at  a  reasonable  cost,  without losing too many casualties, and
     without offending the natives.

Most software methodologies emphasize the second part; this  talk  emphasizes
the  first  by  examining decision processes and methods of analyzing routes.
Two different veiwpoints are used.  The  first  is  the  formal  game  theory
viewpoint--making  decisions  in  a  nondeterministic, multi-stage, N-person,
non-zero-sum game played with incomplete  information.   The  second  is  the
"army"  model  described  above.   From this viewpoint will be discussed such
issues as:

*    The need for scouts on motorcycles ("fast prototypers").

*    How campaigns differ, and thus affect choice  of  troops,  ranging  from
     commando raids through the march of the hordes.

*    Special precautions for earthquake territory.

*    Getting natives to buy and drive your trucks, instead of  shooting  your
     tires out as you drive through their villages.

There exist many similarities in  the  decision  processes  of  formal  games
analysis,  military  planning,  and  project  management.  This talk uses the
first and second to help shed light on the third.  Provided with the talk  is
an  annotated  bibliography,  which  includes  a  famous treatise on "project
management" written in 500 B.C.


                                Bibliography


BLA78A    Blake, S. P., _M_a_n_a_g_i_n_g _f_o_r _R_e_s_p_o_n_s_i_v_e _R_e_s_e_a_r_c_h _a_n_d _D_e_v_e_l_o_p_m_e_n_t,  W.
          H. Freeman, San Francisco, 1978.
          Chapter 4 (Strategies, risk analysis) especially good: alpha  stra-
          tegy  (careful  frontend analysis) vs beta (prototyping, adaptation
          to state-of-the-art changes).  Example  of  Sidewinder  development
          (simple,  reliable,  cost-effective  U.S.  air-to-air  missle) good
          example of beta strategy.

BUS65A    Busacker, R. G., Saaty, T.  L.,  _F_i_n_i_t_e  _G_r_a_p_h_s  _a_n_d  _N_e_t_w_o_r_k_s:  _A_n
          _I_n_t_r_o_d_u_c_t_i_o_n _W_i_t_h _A_p_p_l_i_c_a_t_i_o_n_s, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1965.
          See applications to games and puzzles in sections 6-8 to 6-13.

CLA51A    Clarke, A. C., Superiority.  In _A_c_r_o_s_s _t_h_e _S_e_a _o_f _S_t_a_r_s,  Harcourt,
          Brace, New York, 1959.
          A humorous science-fiction story of  war  lost  by  the  side  with
          better technology, because they kept changing it.

DUF80A    Duffy, N. D., Assad, M. G., _I_n_f_o_r_m_a_t_i_o_n _M_a_n_a_g_e_m_e_n_t -- _A_n  _E_x_e_c_u_t_i_v_e
          _A_p_p_r_o_a_c_h, Oxford University Press, Cape Town, South Africa, 1980.
          Chapter 2 (Informations Systems Development Life Cycles) character-
          izes  strategies  as  Linear, Loopy Linear, Plug-in, and Prototype,
          then offers attributes that may guide  choice  of  strategy  for  a
          given project.

DUN80A    Dunnigan, J. F.  _T_h_e _C_o_m_p_l_e_t_e _W_a_r_g_a_m_e_s _H_a_n_d_b_o_o_k.  Morrow, New York,
          1980.
          Survey of serious games, which often resembles real life in aspects
          of  strategic  planning,  allocation  of scarce resources, and risk
          analysis.

FAL81A    Fallows, J.  _N_a_t_i_o_n_a_l _D_e_f_e_n_s_e, Random House, New York, 1981.
          Superb analysis of U.S. military weapons procurement and realities.
          Chapters:  Realities,  Managers, Magicians, Two Weapons, Employees,
          Theologians, Changes.  "Two Weapons" chapter: F-16 fighter, brilli-
          antly  designed  with good analysis and prototyping; then made less
          capable by adding things in opposite direction of  original  design
          philosophy.

GOM82A    Gomaa, H.  The Impace  of  Rapid  Prototyping  on  Specifying  User
          Requirements,  in _P_r_o_c_e_e_d_i_n_g_s _A_C_M _S_I_G_S_O_F_T _S_o_f_t_w_a_r_e _E_n_g_i_n_e_e_r_i_n_g _S_y_m_-
          _p_o_s_i_u_m: _R_a_p_i_d _P_r_o_t_o_t_y_p_i_n_g, Columbia, Md, April 19-21,  1982,  paper
          #14.
          Case study of project done at GE.

JON80A    Jones, A. J.  _G_a_m_e _T_h_e_o_r_y: _M_a_t_h_e_m_a_t_i_c_a_l _M_o_d_e_l_s _o_f _C_o_n_f_l_i_c_t,  Wiley,
          New York, 1980.
          Chapter 1 is reasonable introduction to  fundamental  concepts  and
          analysis techniques (decision trees, minimax, etc).

KEE81A    Keen, P. G. W.  Information  Systems  and  Organizationsal  Change.
          _C_o_m_m. _A_C_M 24, 1 (Jan 1981), 24-33.
          Discusses long-term change in organizations related to  information
          systems.    Reviews  causes  of  social  inertia,  resistance,  and
          counter-implementation.  Good reading for any software designer who
          hopes to sell ideas.  Includes good bibliography.

LEH80A    Lehman, M. M.  Programs, Life Cycles, and Laws of  Software  Evolu-
          tion.  _P_r_o_c. _I_E_E_E 68, 9 (Sep 1980), 1060-1076.
          S-, P-, and E-programs; use of methods to predict release effects.

LUC57A    Luce, R. D., Raiffa, H.  _G_a_m_e_s _a_n_d _D_e_c_i_s_i_o_n_s  --  _I_n_t_r_o_d_u_c_t_i_o_n  _a_n_d
          _C_r_i_t_i_c_a_l _S_u_r_v_e_y, Wiley, New York, 1957.
          Chapters 1, 3, 4, 7, 8 form a reasonable introduction to the topic.

MAC68A    Macksey, M. C.  _P_a_n_z_e_r _D_i_v_i_s_i_o_n --  _T_h_e  _M_a_i_l_e_d  _F_i_s_t.   Ballantine
          Books, New York, 1968.
          History of German tanks in WW II.
          Moral: when you're even or ahead, don't stop, somebody  is  gaining
          on you.  When you're behind, be careful how you try to catch up.

MAR82A    Martin, J.  _A_p_p_l_i_c_a_t_i_o_n_s _D_e_v_e_l_o_p_m_e_n_t _W_i_t_h_o_u_t _P_r_o_g_r_a_m_m_e_r_s.   Pretice
          Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1982.
          Illustrates existing methods and tools for 10- to 100-fold  produc-
          tivity  improvements  over  conventional  methods, for some problem
          domains.  In some cases, normal high-level language coding  appears
          to be pathetically absolete.

PYS82A    Pyster, A., Boehm, B.  W.   The  Impact  of  Rapid  Prototyping  on
          Software  Development  Standards.   In  _P_r_o_c.  _A_C_M _S_I_G_S_O_F_T _S_o_f_t_w_a_r_e
          _E_n_g_i_n_e_e_r_i_n_g _S_y_m_p_o_s_i_u_m: _R_a_p_i_d _P_r_o_t_o_y_p_i_n_g, Columbia, MD, April 19-21,
          1982, paper #28.
          TRW builds Software Productivity System on UNIX with fast prototyp-
          ing.

TAY82A    Taylor, T., Standish, T. A.  Initial Thoughts on Rapid  Prototyping
          Techniques.   In  _P_r_o_c. _A_C_M _S_I_G_S_O_F_T _S_o_f_t_w_a_r_e _E_n_g_i_n_e_e_r_i_n_g _S_y_m_p_o_s_i_u_m:
          _R_a_p_i_d _P_r_o_t_o_y_p_i_n_g, Columbia, MD, April 19-21, 1982, paper #40.
          Some parts are a bit academic, but has some good  overall  thoughts
          on  prototyping,  especially the section "Limits of Prototyping" on
          page 13.

TZUXXA    Tzu, Sun.  _T_h_e _A_r_t _o_f _W_a_r.  500 B.C.  Military  Service  Publishing
          Company, Harrisburg, PA, 1944.  [thanks to L. Bernstein]
          Contains numerous pithy discussions of project management, although
          not expressed in the standard terminology.
          "When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in  coming,
          then  men's  weapons  will  grow dull and their ardour will be dam-
          pened....  Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, clev-
          erness has never been associated with long delays."

          "[Frederick the Great, in his _I_n_s_t_r_u_c_t_i_o_n_s _t_o  _h_i_s  _G_e_n_e_r_a_l_s,  says
          `Those  generals who have had but little experience attempt to pro-
          tect every point; while those who are better acquainted with  their
          profession,  guard  against  decisive blows at decisive points, and
          acquiesce in smaller  misfortunes  to  avoid  greater.'   In  other
          words, keep away from sideshows.]"

WEI82A    Weiser, M.  Scale Models and Rapid Prototyping.  In _P_r_o_c. _A_C_M  _S_I_G_-
          _S_O_F_T  _S_o_f_t_w_a_r_e  _E_n_g_i_n_e_e_r_i_n_g  _S_y_m_p_o_s_i_u_m: _R_a_p_i_d _P_r_o_t_o_y_p_i_n_g, Columbia,
          MD, April 19-21, 1982, paper #42.
          Offers clear characterization of 3 different kinds  of  prototypes:
          user interface, functionality, and performance.




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